Adapted from Words Like That S2 Bonus #1, originally released August 1, 2024.
On the July 12, 2024, episode of Words Like That, I reviewed Kevin Costner's Horizon: An American Saga, Pt. 1. In that review, I attempted to perform a post-mortem on the film's dismal box office performance. Below is viewer Jimmietronix1's suggestion on why Horizon crashed and burned so spectacularly:
“Have you considered the lack of turn out to the movie theaters may be because of the fallout of the way [Costner] left Yellowstone? In the end, he disappointed all of his fans people who have followed that show for five years and he did so, so he could make this movie”
First, Jimmie, thanks for the comment.
Yes, I had actually seen that hypothesis floated on the internet before I reviewed the film, and I thought about including it in the episode as I was trying to parse the movie's performance. Ultimately, however, I didn't mention it because I don't think it's a valid hypothesis. I just don't see the Yellowstone fan numbers being high enough to have impacted Horizon's box office enough to make it flop.
If you look at Yellowstone viewership numbers, you've got probably--let's say on the high end--6 million die-hard Yellowstone fans that never miss an episode. There are more people than that watching the last couple of seasons regularly, but let's just say 6 million die-hards. If all 6 million of those fans were the type of people who would have gone to see Horizon, provided Kevin Costner had never left Yellowstone, at an average price of $10.48 a ticket for theater tickets right now, the film still would have only made a little over $60 million in theaters off the entirety of its run from that Yellowstone fan base.
Yes, that would have definitely helped the box office some, but it still wouldn’t have been enough for Horizon to have been considered a hit. It still would have taken a huge loss, I believe, after marketing costs, production costs, etc.
Regardless, I just don't think that all of these die-hard Yellowstone watchers are really following the behind-the-scenes drama that closely to realize the drama that went on between Costner, the show, and series creator, Taylor Sheridan. For those that are following, not all of them have anything against Costner in the situation. And for those that do have something against Costner, not all of those people would just boycott Horizon because they're unhappy that Costner left Yellowstone.
As many comments as I've seen online suggesting that Horizon flopped because of a boycott from disgruntled Yellowstone fans, I've seen as many still praising Costner's work on the show. I recently read a Reddit thread of Yellowstone fans bemoaning Costner's departure as Sheridan's fault because Costner said he was committed to Yellowstone, that it was his priority, but that he also wanted to make this movie and he was trying to work on both. But it took Sheridan so long to get moving on production, and perhaps contract negotiations, that Costner had to move on if he wanted to make Horizon at all.
In other words, you have a demographic of Yellowstone fans who are following behind the scenes this closely who have nothing against Costner. So, the question becomes, are there enough die-hard Yellowstone fans who are aware of what's going on behind the scenes, who not only blame Costner, but whose reaction to blaming Costner is “Oh, man. We like Kevin so much on this show, but now that he's leaving to go make this other thing, we're so mad we're going to boycott this other thing”--are there enough of these people in play to have tanked Horizon? I would say, “No.”
I maintain even if every single person that's ever watched an episode of Yellowstone went to see Horizon, the film still would have been required to bring in interest from western fans who don't follow Yellowstone and also people from the general audience in order to have been the hit it needed to be. The movie failed to do that, and that's what I was trying to figure out in my review: What are the factors in play across demographics who, maybe under some circumstances, would have gone to see this movie but didn't?
While I still don't have the answer to that question, I just don't see the Yellowstone fallout being one of those factors.
Cole Powell is an arts and media commentator and award-winning singer/songwriter from Jayess, Mississippi, USA. Powell holds degrees in computer technology and liberal arts and sciences and wants to be a comic book artist when he grows up and learns to draw.